{"id":728,"date":"2025-07-03T09:30:13","date_gmt":"2025-07-03T16:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dataforceff.com\/blog\/?p=728"},"modified":"2026-04-13T09:16:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T16:16:10","slug":"fantasy-football-draft-value-tool","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dataforceff.com\/blog\/2025\/07\/03\/fantasy-football-draft-value-tool\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fantasy Football Draft Value Tool That\u2019s Better Than ADP"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Average Draft Position, otherwise known as ADP, is a big deal in fantasy football. Where are guys being drafted? ADP gives drafters a key piece of information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, as much as being plugged into ADP can benefit you, relying too much on it can get you into trouble. If there is a player you really want, experienced fantasy players know you better grab that guy ahead of ADP. When someone says he or she got sniped on a player, often it\u2019s because that drafter tried to wait till ADP to get that player. ADP can cost you if that number gives you the impression that you can wait on a player you want.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What I\u2019ve found in dynasty rookie drafts is that there\u2019s something even better than ADP, and that something isn\u2019t rocket science. It\u2019s range \u2013 the earliest and latest a player is being drafted.<\/p>\n\n\n

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What I do is chart out where players go in each rookie draft I\u2019m in. With each successive draft, that chart becomes an extremely valuable piece of information. At present, my chart contains seven rookie drafts. The first draft was in late May, and the most recent one just ended a few days ago. One caveat:<\/strong> I make adjustments to my chart when a rookie draft hits a point where veteran free agents are selected or when keepers occupy draft slots. For example, if a veteran free agent is selected at pick 4.02, the rookie selected at 4.03 is notated as 4.02 on my chart. A second caveat:<\/strong>none of the seven drafts on my chart are superflex, which would change the whole dynamic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are the top 12 players taken in the drafts I\u2019ve charted and their ranges:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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  1. Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty \u2013 This doesn\u2019t even need to be said. He goes 1.01 every single draft. No surprise there. If you don\u2019t have 1.01, you won\u2019t get him.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Chargers RB Omarion Hampton \u2013 He has gone 1.02 in every draft I\u2019ve done. Except one. Incredibly, I got him at 1.04 in a draft.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Jaguars WR Travis Hunter \u2013 He\u2019s not like way all over the map, but there is no telling how early he\u2019ll go in your draft. Through seven drafts, I\u2019ve seen him go from 1.02 to 1.07. If you want him, you better go get him. You just don\u2019t know where he\u2019ll go in the top half of the first round. The most common spot is 1.04.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan \u2013 He has gone from 1.03 to 1.05 in every draft I\u2019ve done. I\u2019m not convinced he\u2019s worth that, so I have zero shares. Most often, he goes 1.03.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson \u2013 His range is 1.03 to 1.07. Whether he\u2019s worth 1.03 could depend on how much Rhamondre Stevenson has left in the tank.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. Steelers RB Kaleb Johnson \u2013 Another guy who is not massively all over the map, but I\u2019ve seen him go as high as 1.03 and as late as 1.09. The sweet spot, though, is 1.07. Most of the time, that\u2019s exactly where he goes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  7. Browns RB Quinshon Judkins \u2013 His range is 1.04 to 1.09. His sweet spot seems to be 1.05 or 1.06.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  8. Broncos RB RJ Harvey \u2013 Despite widely varying opinions on what Harvey\u2019s rookie season will look like in a crowded Denver backfield, he goes 1.05 to 1.09 in every draft. If you really want him, you better have a pick in the top half of the first round. Most often, he gets snared at 1.08.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  9. Packers WR Matthew Golden \u2013 Some folks are in love with his speed. Others say no thanks. He\u2019ll go as high as 1.07 or even fall into the second round at 2.01.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  10. Bears TE Colston Loveland \u2013 The draft spots of the two main TE targets are determined by these factors: how the top three-quarters of the first round has gone, plus the TE needs of teams in your league. Generally, Loveland is the second TE off the board, and his range is 1.08 to 2.03.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  11. Colts TE Tyler Warren \u2013 The range for Warren and Loveland is generally the same, but Warren fell to 2.05 in one of my drafts, so his range is 1.08 to 2.05.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  12. Giants RB Cam Skattebo \u2013 He\u2019s a major wild card in rookie drafts. An RB-needy team that missed out on the early stud RB prospects will grab Skattebo late in the first round. If there are no such RB-needy teams, he\u2019ll fall to the second round. When he falls into the second round, he\u2019s usually going to someone who feels fortunate that he fell that far or to someone who is having trouble figuring out exactly who the best pick would be. Skattebo\u2019s range is 1.09 to 2.04.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Now we\u2019re into the second group of 12, and things begin to get very interesting:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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    1. Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka \u2013 He\u2019s usually a first-round selection, but where he goes depends a lot on those two potential first-round TEs, plus Skattebo. Most often, Egbuka goes at 1.10, but I\u2019ve seen him fall to 2.02.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. Bears WR Luther Burden \u2013 Similar to Egbuka, Burden is generally a late first-round pick. His range is 1.10 to 2.02.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. Chargers WR Tre Harris \u2013 Another guy in this WR bunch. There are those who really like Harris, so he\u2019ll go as high as 1.12 or as late as 2.07.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    4. Texans WR Jayden Higgins \u2013 He never goes in the first round, but he goes quickly in the second, from 2.01 to 2.06.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    5. Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten \u2013 A speed guy who can go quickly, as early as 2.02, or last deep into the second round, as late as 2.10.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    6. Lions WR Isaac TeSlaa \u2013 This is an outlier, so buyer beware. He has gone as early as 2.04 in one draft, yet he wasn\u2019t even selected in another draft. His range is Grand Canyon-esque. His most common spot is late fourth round.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    7. Cowboys RB Jaydon Blue \u2013 There are sites that will tell you that you can get him in third round of a rookie draft. They\u2019re wrong. He goes as early 2.05 but no later than 2.10. If you want him, you better go get him. He\u2019s a hot commodity in the second round.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    8. Patriots WR Kyle Williams \u2013 So that gaggle of WRs at the turn is gone. Who\u2019s next? It\u2019s this guy. He\u2019ll go 2.05 to 2.12.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    9. Jets TE Mason Taylor \u2013 If you wanted Warren or Loveland and missed out, this is the guy you need. He\u2019ll go as early as 2.05 and generally mid-second round, but he fell to 3.10 in one of my drafts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    10. Raiders WR Jack Bech \u2013 He\u2019s right there with Kyle Williams, and Bech goes 2.06 to 3.03.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    11. Titans QB Cam Ward \u2013 We finally get a QB off the board, and Ward goes 2.06 to 3.04.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    12. Texans WR Jaylin Noel \u2013 Some folks could be getting desperate for a WR at this point, and Noel\u2019s range is 2.09 to 3.02.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n
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      The ranges begin to expand in the third group of 12:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n