DataForce's Fantasy Football Trade Balancer

DataForce's "trade balancer" is provided to help you prepare trades that are more likely to avoid reviews, and if they happen to be reviewed, more likely to pass the vote. You'll find the balancer bar on the trade page, on the page of all your open offers, and on the page where you respond to trade offers.

It is important to understand that DataForce's balancer does not evaluate trade fairness based on projected statistics, the way normal trade calculators do! Instead, its underlying valuation is based entirely on crowdsourced trade history from TradeCalculator.com (which algorithmically combines hundreds of thousands of actual fantasy trades from various platforms) and player rankings from various industry experts. In other words, popular rankings, not precision projections. That's because it does not attempt to determine whether a trade is good or bad; it cares only whether public opinion will overwhelmingly prefer one side or the other. The point is to determine the likelihood of collusion, meaning the trade partners are actually in agreement that one side is getting the better deal, and whether or not the trade may leave a bad taste in the mouths of the other participants in the league.

Therefore, it's important to understand what the balancer is not. It's not meant to discourage you from offering trades that you think adaquately benefit both sides, and it's definitely not meant to be trusted in evaluating offers sent to you. Every trade calculator is different, and this one is only the DataForce version, so if you disagree with its conclusions, that's perfectly fine. Moreover, the balancer is purposefully crude, offering no precision but rather three simple levels:

The balancer does not replace our trade review system, and in fact, only you and your trade partner see how the trade is balanced. Other owners in your league, and peer reviewers, are forced to develop their own opinions about a trade's fairness.

How the DataForce Balancer Works

All trade calculators differ, and the DataForce calculator has its own flavor. Quite often, an owner will lobby for the fairness of his trade by sending us the results from his favorite trade calculator. Then a review requester will send DataForce the results from her trade calculator, and the two are miles apart. Every calculator is different because they all value players differently, and they all use different algorithms for valuing picks. Especially future-year picks, or picks in rookie/freeagent drafts. No calculator should ever be trusted as the final word.

Two valuation methods are calculated and then combined for each element of your trade:

1. First, DataForce obtains the crowdsourced trade evaluator data, based on actual trades made by tens of thousands of fantasy football owners. These data come from FantasyCalc.com, provide us with a player value for players and picks.

2. DataForce next uses a standard ranking for regular leagues, a dynasty ranking for dynasty leagues, and a combination of the two for salary cap and keeper leagues. These rankings come from the combined position rankings of several popular sites, including our own Matthew Hill's player rankings.

   DataForce's historical draft patterns for Regular, Superflex and Deep leagues are then used to turn positional rankings into overall rankings (for example, quarterbacks are picked earlier in a Superflex league, so quarterbacks in general are considered more valuable.) Every player is slotted into an estimated pick in a draft.

   Our calculator uses a standard statistical player valuation curve (picture stretching the bottom left quadrant of a circle to the right) such that early picks are given comparatively more value, and later picks show little difference in valuation. Players are valued according to where they fit on the curve.

The balancer also incorporates a number of other parameters besides a simple pick-and-player-ranking. For example:

• Players are evaluated differently while the draft is under way. The calculator gives partial credit to where the player was picked or what price was paid for him at auction.
• Trades which include only draft picks are measured a little tighter. It's easy to tell that draft pick 2.11 is worth more than 2.12, even though they're very close in value.
• Players traded before the drop date in keeper leagues may be considerably devalued, depending upon whether the calculator thinks they deserve to be retained. Only five players may be retained per team in a keeper league.
• The "bird in the hand" rule gives current-year picks slightly more value than future-year picks.
• The balancer does look at available players when estimating pick value for upcoming rookie/freeagent drafts. However, it does not do this until after the NFL draft in April. Until then, it just uses estimated pick values.

Why You Shouldn't Totally Trust a Calculator

No trade calculator substitutes for research and common sense. No calculator can grasp the unique circumstances of your own league. A trade may be balanced when it appears not, and vice versa. Consider the following observations:

• The ability to play two quarterbacks in some leagues distorts normal player rankings. Think deeply with deep lineups, and be super careful with super-flex lineups!
• News reports not yet reflected in player valuations is the biggest reason for distrusting a calculator. Injury news, player demotions and promotions, or just simply a change in coaching regime can have a large affect on player values.
• Trade calculators do not consider the strength of teams when evaluating future-year picks. Remember that you want to trade for future-year picks from bad teams, and trade away picks from good teams. Bad teams pick before good teams. This is why trade sharks are always anxious to trade their future-year picks for current year value; they want to win now, and they understand that winning will render their own future-year picks less valuable.
• Also when evaluating future-year picks, you must evaluate the strength of the rookie class for that year. I'm unaware of any calculator that does this.
• Salary leagues and contract leagues are notoriously hard to analyze. No matter the strength of a player, if he's paid too much he's worthless and if he's underpaid he's valuable. I'm aware of no calculator that is useful at all for these leagues.
• Player scarcity also presents a problem for calculators. Consider deep draftmaster leagues, where you can expect every defense and every legitimate quarterback to be drafted.

So as you can see, every trade calculator must be taken with a grain of salt. The unique situation of your own league must dictate whether a trade is fair or not. That is why DataForce offers only a crude trade balancer with three settings, rather than a precision calculator.