Dominate Your Fantasy Football League With The Wonk

Who Is The Wonk?

Cute little guy, isn't he? He is your local mathematician, the guy who crunches all your numbers and tells you who to draft, who to start, who to trade, who to pick up from waivers. He gets his numbers from other experts.

These analysts aren't all free. They may require paid subscriptions, and The Wonk has no money. You buy the subscription(s), tell The Wonk that you're a subscriber (he'll make you prove it, so don't try to fib!) and he'll open up a world of analysis to you.

You can try out The Wonk's genius with FantasySharks. They've generously offered their projections for free. Just select any of your leagues using the drop-down box at the top of the page, or select the Demonstration League if you're not already a DataForce member with leagues to play, and click on the FantasySharks button.

If you then want to try out the projections from paid subscriptions, get your checkbook out. Links from the homepage will show you how to subscribe to these additional websites.

What Are The Slidebars For?

Near the top right of your page you'll see three slidebars. They're for The Wonk's own ranking system, unimaginatively titled The Wonk Way. You have to pay for this subscription, and he is the only one that lets you tinker with his rankings by using the slidebars.

The Wonk gets his information from a wide variety of fantasy sources and analysts, and has learned to divide those sources into three main categories:

1. By the Numbers: These sites favor a purely statistical approach to projecting statistics. It usually means studying the changes in this year's rosters and coaches, and studying the strength-of-schedule to figure out how much better or worse a team will do this year. From this a reasonable set of team statistics is produced. Then, these statistics are simply divided up between the players on the team in a rational manner. This method is a great starting point, it'll make you competitive, but let's be honest: It won't put you over the top in your fantasy league.
2. By the News: This approach puts more emphasis on individual fantasy players than on team production. It dives deeply into player health, coaching reports, and position competitions to estimate each player's value on their own. These sites develop close relationships with the local sports reporters who sit in the bleachers of training camps looking for the standouts.
3. By the Gut: Sometimes the numbers and the headlines just don't tell the whole story. Often, success in the NFL comes down to team chemistry, drive, and other intangibles that can't be measured with a pencil. Analysts that prefer "from the gut" tend to spend a lot of time watching preseason games and ignoring the hype.

So now that you know what you're looking at, how do you choose? Just grab your mouse and tinker with those slidebars until they reflect the percentage you want to emphasize each approach.

Can I Use The Wonk With MyFantasyLeague Contests?

Sure you can! But the catch is, your player database on The Wonk may not be in sync with MyFantasyLeague.com. Therefore, before putting The Wonk to work, you may need to update DataForce.

Of course, you must be logged in to do this. The Login button is on The Wonk's home page. Once you've identified yourself, if you have any leagues on MyFantasyLeague, you'll see a button at the top left of the page that says MFL. Click it.

This may take a couple minutes to run, depending on how many leagues you're active in. But when it finishes, you'll be able to evaluate any league that you purchased through DataForce.

What is the Difference Between Raw and Enhanced Statistics?

Raw stats are just what they sound like: pure, unadulterated statistics. If your source predicts 30 field goals from your kicker this year, that's how he'll be calculated. 30 field goals.

But let me ask you a question. What do you trust more: that 30-field-goal prediction, or the prediction that your quarterback will notch 4000 passing yards? Which one is likely to be closest to the truth?

The passing yards, of course. Kicker production is notoriously hard to predict. In Wonky terms, the standard deviation of projected-to-actual statistics for field goals is much higher than that for passing yards. That's a stiff way of saying your source is likely to guess which quarterbacks will do best rather than which kickers will do best. How do we accomodate this little factoid?

We modify the scoring system slightly, giving more weight to the more reliable numbers. This results in a different calculation of fantasy points. The Wonk has been doing this for a couple dozen years. (He's a lot older than he looks.) Enhanced projections can help you produce a more reasonable ranking system, should you decide to use The Wonk's brainpower on this puzzle.

To use enhanced projections, choose Enhanced rather than Raw Stats.

How Do I Read Wonk Listings?

Here are some hints to help you get the most out of The Wonk's numbers:

• At the top of the report you'll see the last stats update. This reflects the date and time we gathered projections from the source site. It doesn't mean the projections for each player were recalculated at that time.
• The player rows are color-coded. Green rows show players that are owned by another team; the pink players are on your roster; and the light green players are available, unowned.
• When looking at All Positions, the report won't show individual projections like Receptions. Choosing a position (with the radio buttons at the top left of the page) will change the report columns.
• Most player names will be linked to the provider's site. Just click on the name to bring up an analysis page from that source.
• Next to the name is a little player card. Click that icon to view FantasyPros' player notes.
• The ADP column stands for Average Draft Position. This comes from the last few drafts on DataForce Fantasy Football.
• Fantasy Pts is the projected fantasy points scored for this player, whether on a weekly basis or seasonal. See also "enhanced statistics" below.
• Auct Val tells you how much to spend at auction for this player. It's tailored to your league's rules and roster sizes.

How Do I Use the Trade Wonk?

Just click the icon for the team you wish to trade with (hover over the icon to see team names) and then start checking the boxes for players. You'll see the auction values add up for both sides of the trade. You want the "Get" total to exceed the "Give" total. It's really that simple.

You may notice an obvious limitation (or perhaps a feature!) of the Trade Wonk that many other evaluators have. The Wonk won't help you trade picks. Only players. But this may be to your advantage, because the truth of the matter is, the only accurate way to evaluate trades that includes picks (particularly if the draft is already underway!) is to quit being lazy and study the draft list to see who is likely to fall to you at that draft spot. Then take note of the auction value of that player, and consider it when planning your trade.

What Are Value-Based Rankings?

Quality value-based player rankings rely on a double foundation:

1. Accurate player projections, and
2. Accurate calculation of position base levels.

The Wonk provides a lethal partnership between your favorite fantasy analyst and DataForce Fantasy Football. Your source provides the projections; DataForce tailors those projections to the specifics of your leagues.

It's not enough to know, for example, that your quarterback will produce about 4000 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. That's not enough to determine whether your quarterback is more valuable than your running back, who gets only 1000 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 30 catches. Quarterbacks are expected to score more fantasy points; they touch the ball more often.

This is where value-based drafting comes into play. To properly rank every player in their respective position, you need good projections. To then place a value on those players, you need to know how much better each fantasy-worthy player will do than a predefined mediocre starting point. But to determine that starting point, a good calculation takes into consideration all of the following:

• What are the scoring rules of your league?
• How many teams are in your league?
• How many players are on each roster?
• How many starters play at each position?
• Which players can fill any flex positions?
• Do you set lineups or are they set by bestball?

There are other considerations many people don't think to consider:

• What draft habits do the other owners exhibit? (It's common to hoard handcuffs.)
• What are the odds of finding starter-level sleepers on the waiver wire during the year?
• Which positions are more likely to be injured, and therefore require steady backups?
• How many games are your backups going to play, and how valuable will these games be? (A bye-week fill-in isn't as critical as a fantasy playoff game.)

As you can see, there's definitely a lot involved in valueing players for a strategic draft, but The Wonk has been doing this for a couple dozen years. (As menioned above, he's a lot older than he looks). You can trust his Value-Based Rankings if you can trust your source's projections.