The Fantasy Football Draft Value Tool That’s Better Than ADP

Average Draft Position, otherwise known as ADP, is a big deal in fantasy football. Where are guys being drafted? ADP gives drafters a key piece of information.

However, as much as being plugged into ADP can benefit you, relying too much on it can get you into trouble. If there is a player you really want, experienced fantasy players know you better grab that guy ahead of ADP. When someone says he or she got sniped on a player, often it’s because that drafter tried to wait till ADP to get that player. ADP can cost you if that number gives you the impression that you can wait on a player you want.

What I’ve found in dynasty rookie drafts is that there’s something even better than ADP, and that something isn’t rocket science. It’s range – the earliest and latest a player is being drafted.

What I do is chart out where players go in each rookie draft I’m in. With each successive draft, that chart becomes an extremely valuable piece of information. At present, my chart contains seven rookie drafts. The first draft was in late May, and the most recent one just ended a few days ago. One caveat: I make adjustments to my chart when a rookie draft hits a point where veteran free agents are selected or when keepers occupy draft slots. For example, if a veteran free agent is selected at pick 4.02, the rookie selected at 4.03 is notated as 4.02 on my chart. A second caveat:none of the seven drafts on my chart are superflex, which would change the whole dynamic.

These are the top 12 players taken in the drafts I’ve charted and their ranges:

1. Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty – This doesn’t even need to be said. He goes 1.01 every single draft. No surprise there. If you don’t have 1.01, you won’t get him.
2. Chargers RB Omarion Hampton – He has gone 1.02 in every draft I’ve done. Except one. Incredibly, I got him at 1.04 in a draft.
3. Jaguars WR Travis Hunter – He’s not like way all over the map, but there is no telling how early he’ll go in your draft. Through seven drafts, I’ve seen him go from 1.02 to 1.07. If you want him, you better go get him. You just don’t know where he’ll go in the top half of the first round. The most common spot is 1.04.
4. Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan – He has gone from 1.03 to 1.05 in every draft I’ve done. I’m not convinced he’s worth that, so I have zero shares. Most often, he goes 1.03.
5. Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson – His range is 1.03 to 1.07. Whether he’s worth 1.03 could depend on how much Rhamondre Stevenson has left in the tank.
6. Steelers RB Kaleb Johnson – Another guy who is not massively all over the map, but I’ve seen him go as high as 1.03 and as late as 1.09. The sweet spot, though, is 1.07. Most of the time, that’s exactly where he goes.
7. Browns RB Quinshon Judkins – His range is 1.04 to 1.09. His sweet spot seems to be 1.05 or 1.06.
8. Broncos RB RJ Harvey – Despite widely varying opinions on what Harvey’s rookie season will look like in a crowded Denver backfield, he goes 1.05 to 1.09 in every draft. If you really want him, you better have a pick in the top half of the first round. Most often, he gets snared at 1.08.
9. Packers WR Matthew Golden – Some folks are in love with his speed. Others say no thanks. He’ll go as high as 1.07 or even fall into the second round at 2.01.
10. Bears TE Colston Loveland – The draft spots of the two main TE targets are determined by these factors: how the top three-quarters of the first round has gone, plus the TE needs of teams in your league. Generally, Loveland is the second TE off the board, and his range is 1.08 to 2.03.
11. Colts TE Tyler Warren – The range for Warren and Loveland is generally the same, but Warren fell to 2.05 in one of my drafts, so his range is 1.08 to 2.05.
12. Giants RB Cam Skattebo – He’s a major wild card in rookie drafts. An RB-needy team that missed out on the early stud RB prospects will grab Skattebo late in the first round. If there are no such RB-needy teams, he’ll fall to the second round. When he falls into the second round, he’s usually going to someone who feels fortunate that he fell that far or to someone who is having trouble figuring out exactly who the best pick would be. Skattebo’s range is 1.09 to 2.04.

Now we’re into the second group of 12, and things begin to get very interesting:

1. Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka – He’s usually a first-round selection, but where he goes depends a lot on those two potential first-round TEs, plus Skattebo. Most often, Egbuka goes at 1.10, but I’ve seen him fall to 2.02.
2. Bears WR Luther Burden – Similar to Egbuka, Burden is generally a late first-round pick. His range is 1.10 to 2.02.
3. Chargers WR Tre Harris – Another guy in this WR bunch. There are those who really like Harris, so he’ll go as high as 1.12 or as late as 2.07.
4. Texans WR Jayden Higgins – He never goes in the first round, but he goes quickly in the second, from 2.01 to 2.06.
5. Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten – A speed guy who can go quickly, as early as 2.02, or last deep into the second round, as late as 2.10.
6. Lions WR Isaac TeSlaa – This is an outlier, so buyer beware. He has gone as early as 2.04 in one draft, yet he wasn’t even selected in another draft. His range is Grand Canyon-esque. His most common spot is late fourth round.
7. Cowboys RB Jaydon Blue – There are sites that will tell you that you can get him in third round of a rookie draft. They’re wrong. He goes as early 2.05 but no later than 2.10. If you want him, you better go get him. He’s a hot commodity in the second round.
8. Patriots WR Kyle Williams – So that gaggle of WRs at the turn is gone. Who’s next? It’s this guy. He’ll go 2.05 to 2.12.
9. Jets TE Mason Taylor – If you wanted Warren or Loveland and missed out, this is the guy you need. He’ll go as early as 2.05 and generally mid-second round, but he fell to 3.10 in one of my drafts.
10. Raiders WR Jack Bech – He’s right there with Kyle Williams, and Bech goes 2.06 to 3.03.
11. Titans QB Cam Ward – We finally get a QB off the board, and Ward goes 2.06 to 3.04.
12. Texans WR Jaylin Noel – Some folks could be getting desperate for a WR at this point, and Noel’s range is 2.09 to 3.02.

The ranges begin to expand in the third group of 12:

•  Browns RB Dylan Sampson – Despite the expansive ranges in many of those who are drafted after Sampson, his range is pretty consistent: 2.09 to 3.05.
• Saints RB Devin Neal – His range is a bit wider than Sampson’s, but he’ll go 2.10 to 3.10. He seems to be falling a tad since Cam Akers landed in New Orleans.
• Chiefs WR Jalen Royals – His range is wide, 2.10 to 4.03, which is understandable since he has joined a crowded WR room in Kansas City.
• Browns TE Harold Fannin – This is another possible outlier. He has gone as high as 2.10 yet has been undrafted in two of my seven drafts. Generally, he’s a fourth-round pick.
• Rams RB Jarquez Hunter – I wouldn’t call him a  hot commodity, but he usually doesn’t last long as the third round evolves. His range is 2.11 to 3.11.
• Titans WR Elic Ayomanor – There are wide opinions on this guy. He has gone as early as 2.11 and as late as 4.09.
• Browns QB Shedeur Sanders – No surprise here. If you like him, he has gone as early as 2.11. If you don’t want him, no sweat, because he can go undrafted, too.
• Broncos WR Pat Bryant – Another really interesting player. Some folks are very high on him, and he has gone as early as 2.12. I’ve also seen him go undrafted.
• Giants QB Jaxson Dart – He’ll never go undrafted, but the range is pretty wide: 2.12 to 4.07.
• Chiefs RB Brashard Smith – His range is 3.01 to 4.03. Where he fits in Andy Reid’s offense is anyone’s guess.
• Colts RB DJ Giddens – When he’s drafted, he consistently goes 3.01 to 3.05. But I’ve also seen him go undrafted.
• Seahawks TE Elijah Arroyo – Anywhere from 4.02 to undrafted.

A half-dozen others of note:

• 49ers RB Jordan James – 3.03 to 3.12
• Seahawks QB Jalen Milroe – 3.03 to undrafted
• Panthers RB Trevor Etienne – 3.04 to undrafted
• Rams TE Terrance Ferguson – 3.05 to 4.02
• Bengals RB Tahj Brooks – 3.06 to undrafted
• Texans RB Woody Marks – 3.07 to 4.08

Have a happy and safe Fourth, and good luck in your drafts, especially your rookie drafts! 

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