Before draft dynasty rookie drafts began, I predicted that 2026 could bring us a whole lot of fun, a ton of craziness in 2026.
On one hand, I was right. On the other, through June, it has been more like a crazy cake with some chalk icing.
Like Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty in 2025, Cardinals RB Jeremyiah Love has gone 1.01 in every single dynasty rookie draft I’ve done so far. My prediction: Those who were disappointed in Jeanty last season are going to be really disappointed in Love this season.
After Love, Carnell Tate has gone at 1.02 in all but one of the 11 drafts I’ve done to date. All of those drafts have been non-superflex.
The one time Tate didn’t go 1.02, Seahawks RB Jadarian Price was selected, and Tate went 1.03. Generally, Price goes at 1.03, but I’ve seen him go as late as 1.07. I got him at 1.06 in a draft even though I’m not a Price truther because of his injury history. But I was RB desperate on that dynasty team.
This brings us to Saints WR Jordyn Tyson and Eagles WR Makai Lemon. Both have gone as high as 1.03, but Tyson never falls past 1.05, Lemon never past 1.06.
Browns WR K.C. Concepcion goes as high as 1.05, and I had one draft where he was selected as late as 1.09.
The wild card in those first six picks is Jets TE Kenyon Sadiq. He went 1.04 in one of my drafts, and I’ve seen him go as late as 2.01.
After that is where I’ll offer this: If there’s a rookie you like, you better go get him. It’s a grab bag from 1.07 on.
Throw ADP Out the Window
Last year I wrote a piece about how important range is. What’s range? The earliest and latest a player is being drafted. I chart this out for every draft I do. ADP is critical information as you prepare for any draft, but I’ve found that range is an even better tool.
Here’s a link to that 2025 article: The Fantasy Football Draft Value Tool That’s Better Than ADP
First-rounders beyond 1.06
- Browns WR Denzel Boston – He went 1.06 in one draft, but, other than that, he always goes somewhere between 1.07 and 2.02.
- Jets WR Omar Cooper – He never falls to the second round. Same as Boston, Cooper went 1.06 in one draft, but his usual spot is 1.07 to 1.12.
- Broncos RB Jonah Coleman – The Denver RB room is crowded, but that doesn’t stop drafters from reaching for Coleman if they’re RB needy or if they already have J.K. Dobbins or R.J. Harvey. Coleman goes anywhere from 1.07 to 2.03, with 1.08 seeming to be the sweet spot.
- Titans RB Nick Singleton – The same could be said for the Tennessee RB room and how drafters feel about Singleton, who goes anywhere from 1.07 to 2.06. Like Coleman, those on the clock lean toward Singleton if they already have Tony Pollard or Tyjae Spears. As June moved along, Singleton was drifting more toward the middle of the second round.
Two more wild cards
- Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza – You would think most leagues would have a QB needy team that would grab Mendoza in the first round. Not so fast. I was that QB needy team in one draft and took him at 1.08, the highest I’ve ever seen him go. Beyond that, he’ll go from 1.10 to 2.11.
- Eagles TE Eli Stowers – He’ll never be on one of my rosters because I’m not buying the hype on this draft class’ multitude of TEs. But there are clearly those who think Dallas Goedert is on life support, so Stowers goes from 1.08 to 2.09.
Other potential first-rounders
- Commanders WR Antonio Williams – Took me nine drafts before he fell to me at 1.12. Williams goes as early as 1.09 and never goes later than 2.03.
- Chiefs RB Emmett Johnson – He seems to be creeping up the board as people come to the very smart realization that no, Kenneth Walker isn’t going to be any more consistent in the regular season in Kansas City than he was in Seattle. Johnson has gone as high as 1.09 and never goes later than 2.07. He’s one of those guys that if you really want him, you better go get him.
- Dolphins WR Chris Bell – Another player who seems to be creeping up the board, and I can’t understand why. He’s coming off a major knee injury and could be the next Jonathan Brooks in that who knows when he’ll ever see the field. I always pass on him, and he has gone as early as 1.10 and as late as 2.10.
- 49ers WR De’Zhaun Stribling – Folks are aware of the opportunity Stribling could have in an aged San Francisco WR room, so he goes as high as 1.10 and never any later than 2.10.
- Steelers WR Germie Bernard – Other than one time when he went at 1.11, his spot is a very consistent 2.04 to 2.08.
- Giants WR Malachi Fields – Like Bernard, Fields went 1.11 one time. Other than that, Fields goes from 2.02 to 3.02.
The wild and wooly second round
- Commanders RB Kaytron Allen – He’s another of those guys that if you want him, you better go get him. Allen will go anywhere from 2.01 to 3.05.
- Raiders RB Mike Washington – In many of my drafts, he seemingly has become my guy. I’ve gotten him from 2.03 to 2.10. I’ve missed on him three times, and he went 2.02, 2.04, and 2.08 in those drafts.
- 49ers RB Kaelon Black – He’s generally a late second-round guy, but he has gone as early as 2.03 and as late as 3.05.
- Vikings RB Demond Claiborne – His spot is very fluid, and his availability tends to depend on how fast Allen, Washington, and Black come off the board. Claiborne has gone as high as 2.04 and as late as 3.07.
- Falcons WR Zachariah Branch – Branch often falls to the third round, but he has gone as high as 2.05 but never any later than 3.03.
- Buccaneers WR Ted Hurst – If he’s your sleeper, folks aren’t sleeping on him. Hurst will go as high as 2.06 and never any later than 3.06.
Last but certainly not least
- Patriots TE Eli Raridon – I’m among those who have no interest, and he mostly goes undrafted. When he is selected, he’ll go as high as 2.07.
- Panthers WR Chris Brazzell – He’s a great pickup, in my opinion, if you can get him in the third round. He’ll go from 2.08 to 3.09 and never goes undrafted.
- Rams WR C.J. Daniels – Often undrafted, Daniels has gone as high as 2.09. Don’t ask why. No, thank you.
- Bills WR Skyler Bell – I would put him in the same bucket as Brazzell. Won’t surprise me if Bell winds up being the WR3 in Buffalo. Never undrafted, Bell goes from 2.11 to 3.07.
- Ravens RB Adam Randall – Of the RBs always drafted, Randall is toward the bottom of that pile. He goes from 2.11 to 3.12. He could wind up being Derrick Henry’s backup or get moved to TE. Time will tell.
More players worth a mention
- Saints TE Oscar Delp – As early as 2.12 but undrafted most of the time.
- Dolphins WR Caleb Douglas – Usually undrafted but as high as 2.12 otherwise.
- Rams TE Max Klare – Also usually undrafted but as high as 3.01.
- Ravens WR Ja’Kobi Lane – Very popular in the third round between 3.03 and 3.10, but he went undrafted in one draft.
- Rams QB Ty Simpson – Those with Matthew Stafford need to target this guy late, but they often don’t. He’ll go anywhere from 3.02 to undrafted.
- Ravens WR Elijah Sarratt – He could wind up being the steal of rookie drafts. He’ll go as high as 3.01 and was even undrafted in one draft. I ran out of picks in that draft, or I would have added him to a WR heavy dynasty team.
- Broncos TE Justin Joly – Another potential steal. I must confess that I likely have skewed his numbers since I often take him late, as early as 3.04, yet I let him go undrafted in two recent drafts.
- Steelers RB Eli Heidenreich – Usually undrafted but as high as 3.04
- Saints WR Bryce Lance – Another guy I like late. He has gone as high as 3.07 but also was left undrafted a couple of times.
- Colts RB Seth McGowan – If he winds up being Jonathan Taylor’s backup, the fact that he goes undrafted a good bit won’t look smart. When drafted, he goes as high as 3.08.
It’s important to note that this year’s rookie draft is unlike any I’ve ever experienced. In years past, an unprotected veteran usually isn’t taken until at least midway through the third round. Not this year. It’s no secret that a fair number of folks don’t like this draft class at all. In three different drafts, a drafter abandoned the rookies and took an unprotected veteran at 2.01. More often than not this year, an unprotected veteran is selected at some point in the second round. I have a personal rule of not being the first one to take an unprotected veteran. Maybe that’s stupid this year, but I’ll stick to that rule.
It’s also important to note that when I chart these picks and an unprotected veteran shows up on the draft board, or a pick is skipped because a keeper is in that spot, I adjust the draft spot for subsequent rookie selections when I chart them. For example, if a veteran is selected at 3.01, the next rookie selected will be charted as 3.01. This yields a more accurate tracking of where each rookie is being drafted.
Charting all these picks is a labor of love. Hopefully this information helps you with your drafts. Again, my best advice is this: If there’s a rookie you want, don’t wait. Forget about ADP. Forget about range. Jump up and get your guy.
Who’s the one rookie you’re willing to reach for this year, regardless of ADP?
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Fantasy Granddaddy
Fantasy Sports Writer