I love dynasty. I’ve got way more dynasty teams than anyone should ever have and, with orphans available, it’s hard not to add another team or two – or three or more. It’s tremendous fun so it’s clearly an addiction, and now we’re approaching that time when dynasty nuts are analyzing the rookies. Will all that analysis really amount to anything?
I say that because looking back at last year’s dynasty drafts is almost comical. All the experts said it was the year of the running back. There were so many rookies who were expected to have major impact right out of the box.
Turns out, most of them got boxed in one way or another.
The Hype: A “Generational” RB Class
Ashton Jeanty was the No. 1 pick in every single non-superflex dynasty draft. Sure, he was good, but was he really worth being the one and only guy to consider for 1.01? He wound up the overall RB13 for the season, but was he worth all that hype?
Then there’s Omarion Hampton. If you couldn’t get Jeanty, you had to get Hampton, and he looked impressive early on. But he got hurt. He missed seven games and finished as RB33. I’m not one to be down on a player due to injury, but if your playoff hopes rested on Hampton, your hopes were pretty much dead.
Next in line was Treveyon Henderson. Some folks were goo-goo gah-gah over him during dynasty draft season. Then the season started. Dude couldn’t pass block. Patriots coach Mike Vrabel kept Henderson in the freezer for a good bit of the season. He began to bust out as the season moved along and finished as RB21.
Then there was R.J. Harvey, whom some folks loved during dynasty draft season, and some folks weren’t buying the hype. No way J.K. Dobbins could stay healthy, and Harvey would be the Broncos’ main man. Well, Dobbins did stay healthy for 10 games, then Harvey got his chance and wound up RB18. But could you start Harvey in fantasy? It was a weekly dilemma even for several weeks after Dobbins went down.
Now, let’s talk about Kaleb Johnson. Some folks were drooling over him during dynasty draft season. No way Jaylen Warren would keep him off the field. Wrong. The only thing that kept Warren off the field were injuries – and Kenneth Gainwell, who proved to be a decent alternative option in the Steelers’ backfield. Meanwhile, Johnson got splinters, as the old saying goes. He couldn’t pass block for crap, and he was a horrible receiver out of the backfield. Gotta wonder if he’ll be anything more than a practice squad player as his career moves along.
That brings us to Quinshon Judkins, whose legal situation during the summer scared many folks off. Turns out, once he was cleared to play, he looked like the rookie RB to have. Dude has some serious quicks. Overall, he played 14 games and finished as RB24.
Let’s not forget Cam Skattebo. He was a late first-round/early second-round pick in dynasty, but he was really the guy you wanted – until he got hurt. He was looking like maybe the NFL offensive rookie of the year until his right ankle got twisted in a direction it was not designed to go. He finished as RB36, playing just eight games.
The Reality: Injuries, Roles, and Development
Having mentioned all those RBs, let’s veer off for moment and discuss a couple of WRs.
Travis Hunter usually went early first round amid those top RBs. Was he worth that? No. No way. He also got hurt, and now there are questions about how much offense he’ll even play as his career moves forward.
Tetairoa McMillan also went early first round, often as high as 1.03. If you want to say, of all these guys, who really earned their early first round draft position, McMillan might be that guy, so if you drafted him, good for you. He finished as WR15.
We also need to mention two guys who went late first round: Emeka Egbuka and Tyler Warren. Those who were ready to party after getting Jeanty or Hampton or Henderson, how much better off would you have been had you drafted Egbuka or Warren? Sorry to make you feel so bad. Egbuka and Warren turned out to be flat-out rookie studs. Egbuka finished as WR20, and Warren was TE7.
The Deep-Cut RB Lottery Tickets
Back to the RBs. What about Bhayshul Tuten and Jaydon Blue? Many folks made a big fuss about getting them early in the second round. Tuten did OK spelling Travis Etienne, but was he worth jumping through hoops to draft? Certainly not. He wound up as RB54. As for Blue, we’re still looking for him – didn’t even finish among the top 100 RBs. Javonte Williams resurrected his career in Dallas, and Blue is out there riding a horse or something. We never really saw him.
Dylan Sampson had his 15 minutes of fame in Cleveland, but then Judkins got cleared to play, and Sampson pretty much disappeared. He finished as RB53.
Then there were the supposed RB gems in the later dynasty draft rounds, guys like Devin Neal and Jarquez Hunter and Jordan James and Trevor Etienne and Tahj Brooks. Who? Exactly. Pretty much zero impact as rookies. Neal was RB62. Hunter, James, and Brooks were not even among the top 100 RBs. Etienne was RB99.
Brashard Smith came on a little for the Chiefs, so if you grabbed him, good for you. But did you hang onto him for the whole season, or did you give up early on? He was RB64.
DJ Giddens was always ready, willing, and able for the Colts, but Jonathan Taylor had an awesome year, so we really have no idea if Giddens will be a thing. Another rookie who finished outside the top 100 RBs.
Then we come to Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who became the darling of dynasty drafts once preseason games started. Turns out, he was OK, finishing as RB31, but he was far from a major impact player.
Last, but certainly not least, there’s Kyle Monangai, Woody Marks, and Ollie Gordon. These guys could be had easily late in dynasty drafts. Monangai, who wound up RB28, could be the Bears’ starting RB in 2026. Marks became the Texans’ RB1 and finished as RB27. Gordon, who was RB67, was a nice complement to Devon Achane in Miami despite how awful the Dolphins generally were.
The Real Takeaway for Dynasty Managers
The lesson is this: There are no sure things in dynasty rookie drafts. None. And if you are the type of dynasty owner who blows off your third- and fourth-round picks, you could be missing out on a huge opportunity. Sure, it’s often a needle in a haystack, as the saying goes, but those needles can be found. Thing is, you have to keep and make those picks beyond the second round to actually find one.
Question for readers:
Did you hit on a late-round rookie last year or get burned by early RB hype?
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Fantasy Granddaddy
Fantasy Sports Writer