What’s the best draft position in a normal, 12-team, serpentine fantasy football draft? Do you want to pick early or late? In the middle of the round or near the turn?
The Theory: Why the #1 Pick Should Be Best
Statistical analysis will insist that usually, the best draft spot is #1 overall. This is because, given the normal distribution of projected points, your draft will look like selecting the top players off the far right of the bell curve.
The logic is, if projections fall normally like a standard bell curve, then when you pick first, your 1.1 and 2.12 picks will score just a tiny bit more than the 1.2 and 2.11 picks. They in turn will score just a little higher than the 1.3 and 2.10 picks, and so on. You’ll come out of the first two rounds with the best team.
The pattern will repeat again in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Pick 3.1 plus 4.12 will be just a tiny bit better than 3.2 and 4.11, and so on.
Meaning, if the players perform exactly like their projected outcomes for the year, and those projections follow the most common pattern of a bell curve, the best pick spot is #1. The next best is #2, and the worst spot is #12. That’s the theory.
When Theory Meets Reality
But how often does theory mirror reality? What actually was the best spot to pick in 2025? I’ve crunched the numbers for 2025, to see who really drew the best spot. The chart below shows each of the 12 draft spots, for 192 PPR redraft leagues with a lineup featuring only a single quarterback. Most of these are “standard” lineup formats, with 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1PK, 1DE.
2025 Results in One-QB Leagues
The chart shows the number of first-place finishes, second place finishes, and third-place finishes for each draft spot, and then a “total” column that gives a weighted average. First-place finishes are worth 3 points; second place finishes worth 2 points; and third place is worth one point.
Draft spot #2 won the most money at DataForce last year, rather overwhelmingly, with 155 points. Pick #9 did second-best, with 120 points. Then pick #1, #3, and so on.
A quick peek seems to indicate that, in 2025, you wanted to pick at the beginning or the end of the draft. Picking in the middle rounds did poorly.
Results in Superflex and Two-QB Leagues
Again, this analysis is for one-quarterback leagues. How about Superflex or Deep leagues, where you draft two quarterbacks? We had 24 such redraft, snake-draft leagues in 2025:
The best draft spot remains at #2, with #3, #12 and #9 following on its heels. If you were unlucky enough to draw the first pick overall, you scored as bad or worse than the middle rounds, and didn’t win a single league!
What draft spot are you hoping for in 2026?
If you’re preparing for the upcoming season, you can join a fantasy football league at DataForce. Or if you want to jump into an existing team, check out available orphan teams.
Care to weigh in on why the data looks like this for 2025?
Leave a comment below if you have any insights to share!
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Lee Harmon
Commissioner
Interesting data. One implication is that the fairest way to do snake drafts is “third round reversal”, where order the order does not reverse between rounds 2 and 3. Essentially whoever gets higher spots in round 1 (an advantage) will get the lower spots in round 3.